Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Wouldn't it be Nice if.....

the world was less 'interesting'?

It must be once in a lifetime experience to witness the collapse of the financial markets and the contamination of dairy products to run in parallel.

Melamine was added to raise protein levels artificially the same way as lending indiscriminately to raise profit levels. I now understand why the US$700bn bailout failed. It really was unfair to let the people pay for the mistake of those individuals. Yet, it might just affect them the same in any case.

And there seems no end at the moment.

Another chocolate found tainted, and another bank collapsed. What next? People shunned the stock markets as they do to dairy products. Now they really want to make it less interesting.

Something

Somehow, something spurred me to get to 'work'. It used to, and it still did. Anyway, it was by 'chance' when it happened.

I wondered what if, i wondered why not and i wondered why that's why.

And as if my dreams can work like the "on-demand" tv, it just gave me something more to ponder about right after. I guess there are always some point in time where i would like to have a vacation (if vacation is what that is).

Already i can sense some contradiction, and already it was different.

My STM only works in the short term, and in the long run, memory seems to based on what i thought it was. Certain things, i remembered wasn't really so, and perhaps, they never really occurred. Anyway, i don't want to forget anything anymore.

Doesn't make any sense i know.. and most probably i would once again forget what i was trying to convey some time in the future. In any case, i kept thinking about a particular path these days... and i quite missed it.

Monday, September 29, 2008

F1

Yeah.. the first f1 night race is over, and it really wasn't that bad when there are other things to look out for.

Street circuit is usually boring.. coz the track is too narrow to overtake, and so more or less the starting position will be the finishing position. It all depends on the pit strategy then. Then there is this safety car that appears during accidents, creating opportunities for those behind to catch up.

However, the race just now was rather interesting. And it was rather unique to see cars driving off with the fuel pipes still attached.. lol.. must be the 'lollipop man' (the one hold a sign that looks like a lollipop in front) sleeping on duty. Sadly the Ferrari team didn't manage to chalk up any championship points on our track.

It really wasn't that bad, coz already knew there would be bumps.. just that i didn't get to see that much leaves on a f1 track before. Surprisingly, there isn't much problems with the pit location (coz they didn't want to go in at the same time i supposed). With 2 channels at home showing the same live telecast (and so i can siam the commercials), what more can i ask for? Bumpy track? So be it.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

First Ever Bumpy (Night) Grand Prix

Just as the GP starts here, another bank (WAMU) in the US bites the dust. Although the depositors' savings are protected, somehow, it just show how bad the bank is being managed even though there are plenty text examples about ALM (asset and liability management) and all that. I really doubt they put it into good use (wondered where all the additional profits from the addition risks taken went to). Anyway, it just shows that the show ain't over yet.

Finally got to watch the world's first ever night GP today at home, on the tv. Tix were too expensive by the way. I was awed by the fact that it took place at night.. coz the tv screen just look weird with all the cars racing at night. Apart from that, nothing really that trilling. Street circuit is common, especially under the shadows of the Monaco street circuit (nice view by the way)... or so i thought.

Then it struck me. I was wondering why the cars were bouncing around. Sparks were literally flying. It was too bumpy le. It turns out that their greatest concern about the lighting was nothing much afterall. Then the pit lane was inconveniently located, such that drivers entering the pit will block those trying to rush to the start/finishing straights. It was also quite funny to see the branches blocking some parts of the view..

Even though they might want to showcase some of the landmarks of sg such as the anderson bridge, sg flyer, durian esplanade and all the others, in the night, on my tv, i can't really see much (maybe they should shine that wow-so-special lights on these landmarks instead).Or maybe they should consider including our ERP gantry lor.. uniquely sg wor. The 'hole' in one of the grandstand looks special though, and i quite liked it. By the way, the markings on the road looks irritating.. it was pointing one way, while the cars were traveling in another direction.

Well.. it was kind of difficult for the organisers to foresee these problems, especially the bumpy road surface. But at least they could have done a bit more dry runs (with more road closures sadly) using different race lines. Sadly, the bumps are making this track famous instead of being the first night race.

Oh by the way, don't expect locals to be excited about the GP.. it's just not the same as the olympics. We don't have our very own drivers, not even foreign talents.

With experience and feedback, i supposed the race next year will be greater and nicer. After 5 years, we will know whether the marina circuit is a success or not.. and i hoped i will at least once get to see it 'live'... after i've store enough of my salary.

p/s: it's IMO purely, really.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The "Lost Decade"

The lost decade is with reference to the jap economy during the 1990s. It was caused by asset price bubble and it took them very long to recover.

Similarly, the US might have the same outcome coz one thing leads to another... and another and another.

Just hope that with the 'lesson learnt' decades ago, they can put an end to all these nonsense sooner.

With that, i think my banking degree is barely sufficient to tackle the banking sector now.. and hopefully if i ever attempt another path, i don't end up with a lost decade again.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Milk Crisis

Somehow, the tainted milk is just like the bad assets of the financial sector. It just spread and spread, and then many end users find themselves exposed to the risk.. just becoz someone at the beginning didn't do their job.

The intention of adding melamine is very zek ark.. as with the sub prime lending and borrowing. For profit, the rest didn't really matter to them huh?

Just once is enough le lor.. i already miss the luncheon meat, now i'm going to miss all the dairy products.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

CFG

Saturday 9/20:
In the end, the 2x 179 wasn't back at scc (still 'on the go'), and i only got to know about it at the last minute. No choice, had to pack my baobei horn and got it ready for a long long journey to scc at boonlay. After packing, i was running late.. and thought of taking cab down to boonlay.... but too expensive le.. so had to fork out 1.5 hours instead of $15.

Tried a different bus to scc as 242 is 24/7 full. With my baobei horn, it is quite difficult to alight. As recommended, i took 199 instead.. waited quite a while, but was worth it.

Reached, and then.. and then... and then.. the whole band attendance was only 3. Perhaps due to the on going cfg all around ba.. so can't blame them. I'm just thankful that i didn't rush down in a cab. Theme of the day - "Méditation".

We each did our own practice.. and maybe i did less than what i usually do at home. Sounded very horrible near the sound absorbing wall, but suan le ba.. i bo form.

Sunday 9/21:
Slept at 6am, but woke up by sis at around 10+am. She said grandma invite us to go to our cfg. Sis had to go out in the afternoon, so i just go lor. Actually had been to another cfg the previous week, and more or less, expect the same things.. and indeed, really more or less the same, especially the introduction video. One more time, and i can recite the script le.


The cfg banner.. my 'receipt' of being there..

Reached home quite tired, yet couldn't sleep due to another cup of kopi-c. A few more, and i will have to bleach my teeth before interview starts.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Glimmer

Finally something not as gloomy.

The STI managed to climb back from the negative after lunch amid some positive news. The central banks pumped in more liquidity, and the remaining banks are on their way to mergers. Plus, some markets are putting a temporary halt to short-selling (which drives the share down by selling first and then buying back the shares at a lower price). They could have done all these sooner rather than to allow the market to 'correct' itself. IMO, i don't believe in the invisible hand of market, for there are none. It is driven by "hope, greed and fear".. and with these emotions, nothing will work to models and assumptions.

Excessive long buying will create bubbles where only the greatest fool loses out (the last one to own the stock and finding no other buyers at that price), while excessive shorting spooks the market, and cause others to short even when it is irrational. People are just too afraid of losing than gaining even if the probability is 50/50 (loss aversion under behavioral finance). This makes short selling a very common strategy during times of crisis (when you get a lot of people doing short selling) making it a self-fulfilling prophecy and it is enough to bring an institution down (hence creating all the shockwaves and all the clearing up in years to come). Of coz, there are those who are critical of behavioral finance, but that is IYO (In your opinion).

Maybe the financial market evolved too much that it is very difficult to untangle all the mess now. And the current solution - pump in more money (money comes from tax payers mind you) and let them (the assets) slowly recover.. really slowly, like that of the japan economy will take decades.. just because some of the FIs anyhow lend.. a bit papaya lor.

Financial Shockwave

At some point in time, i thought i was immune to the financial crisis at the other side of the globe. Who knows, the shock wave hit me faster than i thought, directly. And i wasn't even talking about the local stock market or my jobbing prospect yet.

They say never to put all eggs in a basket, but they didn't say not to put different eggs into the same basket. And that had somehow made me think that i've yet retained for another year and retaking 3 extra modules. As always, the feeling of losing something won't feel good, as with losing anything.

And i almost forgot... lehman bros, you good huh..

Anyway, the market continued to bleed, with those wounded now also dying.. which leads more being wounded. In the end, those with the ability to end all these will come in and rescue/raid the ailing companies that is considered a bargain. But, IMO nobody will want to act now.. the problem will only get worse, and more confidence shaken and ending up with less money in the financial markets... until they decide that enough is enough.

Now they didn't even want to lend, as signaled by the IBOR, for fear of the ultimate fool. The problem is, no matter who lends who, the money is from someone else.. and then it will have the domino effect if the ultimate fool fails. IMO, i think they themselves can cause more damage to their economy than any other.

Today the STI LSed again, with the biggest drop of the week (as at 12.30pm) with over 100pts of drop. To date, over 1k pts was wiped off since the last peak. I guess all these will be the future textbook context when it all ended.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Sequential Service Constraint

Wow.. 1st time seeing the "sequential service constraint" problem happening right at home. Just not very serious, coz as all FI (Financial Institutes) operates, they are heavily regulated, especially in sg context. So by running at the FI, people make it more difficult for them to survive, and you can say it is a "self fulfilling prophecy". Take all the money out liao then how can they make money to survive? Certain amount are invested in long-term asset.. which means when people withdraw their money, they are creating liquidity problems for the FIs. As such, the FI got either to borrow short term from the central bank or sell their assets (which might not fetch as much now).. so in the end, they will lose out.

I think i can write an entire essay lor.. haha.. how come when i take my exam that time the financial world wasn't that 'happening' ar?

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Chapter 11

By now, the news of Lehman, Merrill and AIG is covering most of the news headlines (at least on the cnbc).

Lehman doh-ed under chapter 11 (reorganisation) of the bankruptcy code today while AIG is seeking bridge loans. Merrill on the other hand seems to be 'rescued' by the Bank of America.

I don't know whether if i'm fortunate or unfortunate to be living through as what was described at the "worst economy crisis in a hundred years". I wondered if the great depression of 1929 can even par this. Why is the economy so susceptible to bubbles? Of all the proposed explanations, i liked the "greater fool" theory best. It seems, a lot of people are 24/7 optimistic about anything and everything. Optimistically optimistic that there are a lot more 'fools' out there. And if it rang any bell, you can see it in some 'business models' that required you to recruit more people in order to earn more.

The sub-prime might be similar to the economy bubble of japan, and that already took quite a while to 'recover'. As with that bubble, the sub-prime crisis might also take some time.

Perhaps all will be well IMO in 2 - 3 years (i'm being the fool here), maybe longer depending on whether anymore of them want to doh. Even if banks are no longer exposed to those assets, the whole movement of 'investments' might take some time to return. Just be thankful that people are not starting to run at the banks. Meanwhile, it all translate to more bull ls tomorrow. IMO, i don't think it is any time to enter the market if the strategy is long term. However, short term hit-and-run strategy is still possible, even to the extend of 'short-selling'. Why not? Opportunities are plentiful in bull or bear, just that the window is smaller.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Swollen Feet

Got up from bed around 10am+, and i thought i've stepped on something early in the morning. Turned up to be that my feet was swollen, and it became so numb that i almost can't feel my feet touching the floor.

I guess it must have another flare up of arthritis. Been aching all over, quite permanently and sometimes really irritated by it. Yet at other times, i've quite forgotten about it. My 'extra' weight (that is 4kgs)is putting quite a strain on my feet.. plus i've carried my baobei horn (that is another 4kgs) around for the whole of yesterday. No wonder i'm aching all over.

Anyway, the next medical follow up is just next month.

Sometimes i niam a lot coz i don't want to forget how bad it was when it all started.. i'm already quite thankful that it got better.. however slight.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Redundant

Today i've been made rather redundant. From 2 become 7, the horn section grew 2.5 times. And it was only when i reached that i thought i should have otherwise.

I've never played in a band with 7 horns before. Regardless the skill level, 7 is still quite an overkill.

And since it was so, i overkill-ed on the overkill.. but i'm glad the tone was still ok too. I couldn't hear myself very well really.. coz most of them are trying to overkill too.. and seriously the tuning was super out during the dry run.

Actual performance was rather alright, just that i find that being the side/background is not really that appealing to me. Can i just come in and play and then leave after playing? Miscued 1 wrong note altogether.. but it makes no difference. Even if i didn't play, there won't be any difference.

We became the "ad-hoc" band, with lots of ad-hoc players and attire. Ok la.. i just fail to see the positive light out of the whole thing. Maybe i'm just too shocked to see so many horns after a dry spell of almost 7 years. I promise i will be more appreciative the next time. Further more, this is not a band event, so actually is like that one.. as with all the other. I guess i'm just feeling irritated due to insufficient sleep (yesterday was tiring lor.. coz stand and stand).

Today is a very warm day, and wearing that promoter attire makes me rather uncomfortable.. coz my tummy couldn't fit in as well as before. Since june, i've put on 4kgs.. mostly to my now chubby face.. and my belly. I couldn't distinguish whether it is a beer belly anymore.

Thankfully the trip home was rather fast compared to the trip to.. and the bus at 10pm++ didn't have much passengers too.. so didn't have to stop that many times..

Overall a very tiring day where i fail to appreciate. Hoped the next one would be better.

p/s: i enjoyed the muffins door gift though.. hahaha.. at least a change from the usual instant noodles.

The Usual

The Usual.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Got NOR

Took it quite a while to reach, so long that i didn't even want to check the mail liao.

Anyway, my result slip is here, and 'as expected' they typed it correctly.. lol.. don't know to be glad or sad.

Finally over!.. and it was all because of that 3 mods that cost me an additional year.. and one of them was because i absent myself after a 2 week break. It was my last paper lor... If only i just need to retake 2 in my 3rd year... Overall quite a stupid move, but given that year 'plentiful', it's difficult to focus. Ok la.. my fault, and i've paid for it with an additional year and additional school fees too.

Everything seems to be with timing. Graduate also like that, choose modules also like that, and all the more, buy shares also like that. Correct move, wrong time, also gone.

Today the STI rallied down again, after the profit takings, and also the reduced oil production (cut in supply to maintain price = demand is falling = slowdown in growth), falling euro (in order to make exports competitive = falling export = slowdown in growth), plus the chwee-ing of lehman (one of the more hard hit negative news of the week, even though fred and fan was rescued). Today it fell 80 over points, and there is no signs of the economy recovering. Of coz, IMO, i'm quite pessimistic about the economy coz the financial system is integrated across nations. One bank chwee can lead to another bank chwee-ing.. in the end a lot of them chwee, then people get no money to start new biz and they chwee also. Then those that invest in their shares also chwee. Chwee until the point when it can chwee no longer, then perhaps they will be happy. Anyway, i wonder where all the money since before the sub-prime went to. Money can just disappear 1 meh? Surely it must have gone somewhere.. perhaps into the developers' pocket of those estates. In conclusion, the rich just get richer (that is exclude the banks.. they suay la).

Anyway, maybe i might end up in some banks too.. coz i seriously wonder what my degree can do other than banking and finance (becoz it is banking and finance).. or maybe i should go learn how to groom dogs? LOL.. (never work with animals or kids). Haiz.. the coming of NOR means quite a lot wor.. for one, my degree is confirm (it should already but i just want the hard copy to verify) and then, it's time to adjust to a different mode.. afterall, it was one whole year of this kind of lifestyle (or maybe it was 4 since the beginning of my SIM days).. and it is rather challenging to change suddenly. Arr.. i don't want to leave the 'shire'.

Still, a CFG performance coming up on saturday at ICA, we'll be a part of the whole performance playing 2 pieces - xiao ding dang and japanese graffiti iv (without repeats). So.. will you be there?

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

No NOR

Today i went downstairs to check the mail, but no NOR (notification of results) yet. My friend already got it.. so perhaps it'll be here tomorrow. After which, i have absolutely no excuse le. I know i've been procrastinating on finding a job, and i've given all sorts of excuses.. and i've got loads of them still.

Bear time must hold more cash wor.. so don't anyhow spend. Wait for opportunity and then invest in one good company to maximize wealth. Notice the word is invest, not bet hor. All the salary earned will be eroded by inflation sooner or later. Finance like econs, is quite difficult lor.. coz there are always 2 sides to every story. So oil prices falling is bad news.. depending on the 'majority' of people siding each view (and hence sliding the market direction). They win by numbers. So Mac and Mae got 'rescued' and the STI chiong until don't know like what.. maybe only to chwee a few days later when people starts taking out profit. You'll never know and i'll never know too.. if not i can really forget about going to work and just sit by my comp every morning waiting to earn 3k in an hour (a joke shared by my friend). If only it was so easy, then i can forget about buying toto too.

My hair got shorter by the day.. if this keeps on, i'll be botak before i know it. With a short short haircut, my face looks super plump.. for the 1st time. Suddenly had so much to zhng before work starts, and perhaps, i might take down feature one of these days. Been putting on 3kgs since the euros, and now i couldn't stand hunger pangs. And now i crave for the ribeye steak i saw 2 saturdays back.

And now then i know that pakki got 'special attention' that day at the groomer's. He was giving some treats to take home too. Only he got.. coz the groomer said pakki was very cute. Most probably is the toot haircut he got when my sis tried to DIY. No wonder he seems so happy.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

I substituted this Entry with..

Pakki is almost 21 months old le, and still as cute as the 1st day he came.




He looks sleepy though..


After grooming.

Pakki went to a new groomer this week, as recommended by one of the staff of the chocolate factory. She was having a grooming course there, and so we can get discount. Quite a nice place, coz the moment pakki went in, they feed him some treats.. plus, the learners there were all so delighted by pakki's arrival. When the job was done, pakki got 'dressed up' with a bandanna. Too bad he missed the class 95 bandanna when he went for the dog walk the other time.. coz i think bandannas look very nice on dogs.

Was on my way to boonlay for pract when i saw one stray dog crossing the road. It almost got knocked down by a truck.. and the dog siam.. then it ran down the middle of the road.. so very dangerous. Strays are so poor thing.. especially in this urban place. The other time, another stray at my place here died coz it ate a dead bird. I wondered why people would want to abandon their pets lor.. they really can't survive outside.. and other shelters also won't have place for them to stay in.

Those that feed strays also are no better.. coz the more you feed, they more they reproduce.. and this is very irresponsible lor (if you want, bring them home.. not just feed as and when you like).. 不知是爱还是害. Want to feed go to the sea and feed the fishes or prawns la.. But not silverfishes hor.. i don't like them.. they are so all over the place hindering and irritating. Please do not feed them.

At band today, i kind of like the acoustics of the 2nd level. Very spacious and makes a nice echo. Superb for hiding imperfections. Was trying my projections as such, and found the scc's holton 179 to be very very nice. Tone not really that good, but it was easier to project. Plus, it didn't have that much tuning problems at the higher octaves. Quite very nice indeed. And i was so glad that the 179 was so nice today.

Rain came and had to abandon all my night activities.. i dislike rain when i had to go places. I could have stayed all night at scc though.. that is if my stomach don't rebel.

Home soon, and instant instant noodles as usual. I think this is the Nth time i ate instant noodles this week le. Instant noodles with crab sticks and egg.. cost less than $1. To think that MGR w/egg cost $4.50.. that amounts to daylight robbery. Thought i kind of missed the kopi tarik there.. so now, i switched to home-made milo instead. And there are variations of milo lor.. i thought milo mocha already quite pro le... now they introduce cereal de.. wah.. i can have 3 sachets everyday also won't get bored.


I think my pots and kettles are going to be as black as each other if this keeps on.

Thursday at hq for the dry run, campus superstar Benjamin came and he sang 伯乐. It was very nice even though that was just a partial rehearsal. And the song was nice too.. lol.. the melody got stuck le.

Read this on the SSA times, "cherry blossoms are cherry blossoms, peach blossoms are peach blossoms". I find it quite meaningful, though sometimes i still forget. I got STM, but there is no need to remind my of my STM. When i forget, i remember.

My Saturday night ruin by rain (saving me some cash in the process).. I wonder where all the life will go when work begins. So why not grab it now? It is a once in a lifetime opportunity wor. if not now, then when? (looks so familiar)

Friday, September 05, 2008

Oil Run

Whoa. They said it was a bull run a few days back. Now it was bull sh*t.

The STI ls-ed like nobody's business even though oil eased for quite some time. And strangely enough, it was the easing that caused the bloodshed. Profit being compromised due to a lower crude price.. it shows how cabbage we really are.

And oil, makes man city a serious contender for the title this time round with the injection of funds from new owner. Now they can buy like mad.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

And?

And so they really upload the results today.

And i got what i deserved.. (and prayed for) for i expect no more for what i've put in for this academic year. Since the first paper, i wasn't sure anymore. Was an attempt for a lower really.. yet, it turned out to be a struggle for 3rd, or even just a pass.

And i've got a surprise. It was actually closer to then not to. IM shocked me most.. it was one paper which i didn't know what i was doing and yet..

And as expected, my FR almost buang-ed (+1 only), due to the fact that i did the entire question wrongly and in the process consumed 1/2 of my time and i still got it wrong. Respect to all accountants doing consolidations out there.

And FI after 3 attempts (2 absents), i finally got it. This was my "hidden" module. The fact was that, i didn't go for it (again) during my 3rd year.. and i didn't want to say it (save all those niam-ing from those that cared or just want to niam). Not as well as expected, but it makes no difference (to my classification) since it was the last paper of all my mods.

And the reason why i was so unsure of the outcome was, in the event that i failed 2 mods, whatever i had will be 'downgraded'.. and i might end up with nothing. Nothing after 4 years.. and i don't know how to account for the time + money spent.

And i'm very thankful atm that i've cleared all, secured an hons though perhaps i should have done better. Never been so glad that everything concluded so nicely. It was afterall, a 3+1 years event which dragged for too long already.

And of all, this was one outcome which i'm totally clueless of. It could be either way.. but thankfully, all turned out well.

And i should wait for my NOR before i really celebrate. Anyway, results should be known to all by the coming convocation.

And now what? Time to get ready for full-time job hunting. I might need to ponder on what i want.. if not end up quitting halfway, then got to restart again. Criteria: my 5Ps of a career - prospect, pay, perks, people, place. So it isn't a question of when rather than a question of where. I am all ready (after i get the NOR).

OMG (!)

Rumored that the results will be out very very soon. Should be one of these days, if not today.

OMG.